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Frankrike- To Be, Or Not To
Be A Country - that is the question Alliance pour la Souveraineté de la France France's European policy (Franska UD på engelska!) President Chirac in english http://www.premier-ministre.gouv.fr/en UDF:s presidentkandidat Francois Bayrou på franska François Bayrouin english at wikipedia
Philippe de Villiers is a French rebel with a cause. He breaks a general taboo among respectable politicians in France. Frankrike godkände nya EU-fördraget Referendums on the new European Union Treaty were "dangerous" President Sarkozy urged the US to maintain a strong dollar policy, “The yuan is already a problem for everybody. The dollar should not remain simply a problem for others. If we are not careful, monetary disorder risks descending into economic war, of which we would all be victims.” *
The dollar, said John Connolly, treasury secretary to Richard Nixon, "is our currency, but your problem". "Some thougths about the future of the euro" "Europe must progressively affirm itself as a first-rank player for peace and security, Professor Paul de Grauwe Mr Sarkozy may run into "unexpected problems" according to the EPC paper. Mr Sarkozy's calls for a “European economic government” As far as the Eurocrats can make out, economic government means giving elected national politicians the last word over broad swathes of EU economic policy, A French history of the single currency* credits François Mitterrand with the first public call for “an economic government for Europe”, in an October 1990 speech to a Franco-German summit in Paris. In a rhetorical flourish that Mr Sarkozy might envy, Mr Mitterrand called Europe's planned single currency and central bank mere instruments that lacked a soul. A second headache is the reopening of old debates about how sovereign states should align their economies and merge currencies, but at the same time remain democratically accountable to voters. The truth is that big countries do not have to obey the same rules, and Mr Sarkozy will probably get away with missing the original 2010 target for eliminating his budget deficit. This is not so shocking: the pact was reformed to allow flexibility to countries undertaking structural reforms. Full textGermany needs to formulate a response to Sarkozy or the only proposal on the table will be It was a remarkable performance by Nicolas Sarkozy when he visited the Eurogroup in Brussels. He managed to avoid a confrontation, and to defuse some of the criticisms launched against him by Peer Steinbruck, the German finance minister. I have argued in my recent Financial Times Deutschland column that Germany needs to formulate a response to Sarkozy. Or better, that Germany makes its own proposal to improve economic policy co-ordination in the euro area. If not, the only proposal on the table will be Sarkozy’s anti-stability, anti-competition, pro-currency-intervention proposals. President Nicolas Sarkozy Mr Sarkozy seeks a stronger “political Europe”: The new French president likes to provoke, but he should choose his enemies with care. On trade protection, and Turkey, he may antagonise the British. He can live with that. If he challenges the powers of the European Central Bank, he will have to face the wrath of Berlin. Mr Sarkozy seeks a stronger “political Europe”: a permanent EU presidency to replace the present six-monthly rotation, a foreign minister, “reinforced co-operation” between smaller groups of member states on policies that all 27 cannot agree, and more majority voting – especially in the area of immigration. He is neatly in the centre ground between the maximalists who want the full constitution – such as Italy’s Romano Prodi – and the minimalists, doubtless including any future British government under Gordon Brown. Mr Sarkozy already presents himself as a “good European”. Yet he is not a natural man of consensus. On other issues, he remains ominously Gaullist: he wants Europe to provide more “protection” against the effects of globalisation, condemns “naivety” in EU negotiations on the Doha round, and wants more “economic governance” to counterbalance the powers of the European Central Bank. He is adamant that Turkey should not join the EU. A voting share of 53 per cent sounds impressive. But a closer analysis of the French presidential election throws up a perplexing result. According to Ipsos*, the polling organisation, 18-59 year olds – those who work and pay most of the taxes – overwhelmingly voted for Ségolène Royal, the defeated Socialist candidate Tom Peters, the management guru, has made another interesting observation in his blog. While Mr Sarkozy was campaigning on a “back-to-work” ticket, he owed his election victory to people who are no longer in work. Mr Peters says by sending the young back to work, the “six-zero plussers can get their hands on the loot they need to spend their remaining winters in Nice”. Ms Merkel and Mr Sarkozy are both exceptional and talented politicians. But I do not buy the argument that they are representatives of a new age of centre-right European politics. I think it is far more likely that they will turn out to be transitional figures in brave defiance of a tectonic shift to the left in their countries. Although it is widely known that our Social Security and Medicare Programs are threatened by these demographic trends, there are many who believe that they have accumulated sufficient private wealth to fund their retirement. European finance ministers Alain Lamassoure, tipped to be the new Europe minister in the Sarkozy government, said Paris will agree to stick "as much as possible to the original text."
Mr Sarkozy wants a pared down treaty that can be approved by national parliaments only, while Ms Royal and Mr Bayrou - who also favours a slimmer treaty - both want a referendum. France's elections will also have profound implications for Europe and its attempts to revive talks on internal institutional reform, with the topic until very recently being taboo at political level since the EU constitution was rejected by French voters in May 2005. The French created the European Union, so it would be appropriate if they destroyed it. Listen to the arguments made by the leading candidates in the French presidential election – Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal – and it sounds as if they are intent on taking a sledgehammer to the “Common European home”, built by their compatriots Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman and Jacques Delors. The visions of Europe that they are dangling before French voters are likely to be unacceptable to the rest of the EU. So the French presidential election is setting the stage for confrontation between France and its European partners in Brussels, followed by rampant euroscepticism at home. In Paris 10 days ago, I heard Mr Sarkozy give a speech to a group of young entrepreneurs that directly attacked the euro. He blamed the single currency for undermining French competitiveness, for raising prices and for hobbling French growth. Mr Sarkozy’s proposed solution is not to leave the single currency, but to set up an “economic government” for the EU. This seems to be a code for scrapping the independence of the European Central Bank. But any such idea is likely to be unacceptable to Germany, where central bank independence is a quasi-religious concept. Ségolène Royal’s faltering presidential campaign was dealt a further blow on Monday as François Hollande, The latest poll, published yesterday by Le Figaro, gave Mr Sarkozy 27 per cent, against 25.5 per cent for Ms Royal and 23 per cent for Mr Bayrou. Mr Le Pen was fourth with 12 per cent. An overwhelming majority of citizens in the big eurozone countries believe the euro has damaged their national economies, highlighting the popular scepticism that still surrounds Europe’s eight-year-old monetary union. Even Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy are attempting to divert the blame for France's ills on to others by taking cheap shots at the European Commission and the European Central Bank. But even the leading contenders from the two mainstream parties - Ségolène Royal from the opposition Socialist party and Nicolas Sarkozy from the ruling UMP party - are demanding a complete break with the past. They too are seeking to dissociate themselves from a system with which they have both been intimately linked - in different ministerial jobs and elected positions - for the past quarter of a century. They are also attempting to divert the blame for France's ills on to others by taking cheap shots at the European Commission and the European Central Bank. On key issues, moreover, such as Turkey's accession to the EU, she (Ségolène Royal) has declared that "her opinion is that of the French people" - whatever that may be. Such opportunism may help win her short-term popularity but it is an abdication of her responsibility for leadership. Ségolène Royal, socialist candidate for the presidential elections: France's prime minister Dominique de Villepin: In a landmark speech mapping out his vision for Europe, Mr Sarkozy called on European leaders to agree a "mini-treaty" that would salvage the urgently required institutional reforms laid out in the original draft constitution. One Country - One President "Oron för ett ”Europas förenta stater” är obefogad" Officiell fransk kritik mot EMU For the first time, an official French report has criticised the Euro. The latest report of the Council for Economic Analysis (CAE) given to the French government on 23 March, “Economic policy and Growth in Europe,” written by Philippe Aghion, Élie Cohen and Jean Pisani-Ferry, draws up a really tough assessment on the single currency and the actions of the Euro zone. Few things can fill the Anglo soul with such warm happiness as the sight of the French getting hysterical in public. Parisian riots are of a marvellously win-win proposition. There is a deep British pleasure in watching the Frogs riot in Paris but perhaps, and it’s only a small perhaps, but perhaps they’re right. Maybe the cravenly entitled students and the lazy, fat, nose-thumbing unions are more right than wrong. All market societies work on a balance between employer and employee, between what one can get away with and the other will put up with. It’s a pendulum that swings hither and thither; perhaps now it’s too much in the favour of business. The whole first world is having China and India held up as a dreadful competitive warning. Factor-price equalization - Faktorprisutjämning The prime minister is portrayed in the media as an idealistic political leader who tried to do the right thing, but failed. French youth unemployment is among the highest in the western world. It has oscillated between 20 and 30 per cent since the mid-1980s and is now at the lower end of this band, but with no signs of a futher decline. Tito Boeri of Bocconi University in Milan and Pietro Garibaldi at the University of Turin argue* that Mr de Villepin’s CPE accentuates the intergenerational conflict between labour market insiders and outsiders. They conclude that for as long as this conflict persists, there will be no genuine labour market reform. France has acute problems getting its young people into work. Mass access to the school-leaving exam and to universities has not been matched by more jobs for the young. Fewer than 30% of French 15-24-year-olds are in employment, way below the OECD average and half the rate in Britain. And many of those with jobs are on short-term contracts that often last no more than a couple of months; they find it hard to move into steadier work. Moreover, the new contract was devised partly in response to last autumn's rioting in France's troubled suburbs. Indeed it is not meant primarily for students, many of whom will not even graduate before they reach 25, at all—but rather for those who leave school with no qualifications and face unemployment rates as high as 40-50%. For them, even two years under the new job contracts would offer work experience that might lead on to something better than a life on the dole. If President Chirac and his ministers had any sense they would stop philosophising about the ideals of the French Revolution and would focus instead on the practical policies required to accelerate the economy’s growth rate Between late 1980 and 1984, interest rates in Britain were slashed from 17 per cent to 8.5 per cent. As a result of these dramatic rate cuts, the value of sterling halved from $2.40 in early 1981 to just $1.05, giving what was left of Britain’s manufacturing industry an enormous boost. The monetary stimulus from these rare cuts and devaluation was what triggered the recovery of the British economy — far more than Mrs Thatcher’s labour and trade union reforms. Significantly, only one of the great supply-side reforms for which Mrs Thatcher is now remembered was implemented before the economic recovery of 1982-84. This was the sale of council houses and financial deregulation that helped to produce the house price boom of 1982-85. The labour reforms and privatisations that came later were absolutely necessary to consolidate the recovery of the early 1980s and to prevent it developing into an inflationary spiral; but it was the monetary easing, devaluation and housing boom that got the economy moving.
It is difficult to argue with a 56 per cent vote on a high turnout of 70 per cent. And if there is any comfort to be drawn from this seismic event, it is that It is difficult to recall anything positive about Jacques Chirac's 10 years in office. Mr Chirac occupies the Elysée palace thanks to a freak landslide victory in 2002 when the French left was forced to support him to keep out Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Front National leader. The French president's support was borrowed, not earned, and on Sunday many voters gleefully called in their loans.
President Jacques Chirac tog under torsdagskvällens tal på sig rollen som pedagog och Ja, konstitutionen är ett vapen mot utflyttningen av franska företag och ja, konstitutionen kommer att bättre skydda européerna mot såväl terrorism som epidemier och miljöproblem, enligt Chirac. 1. "The constitution is a noble document designed to help today's enlarged EU march on more efficiently towards an “ever closer union”, one that can be strong in the face of the United States France's referendum has not yet been held but the inquests have already begun about why the Yes campaign has floundered. Even though the political parties supporting the constitution have had more airtime on national radio and television to explain their views, the No campaign has been able to sway the public debate by effective grassroots mobilisation and paradoxically the innovative use of one of the tools of globalisation, the internet. Dozens of websites and blogs have been created by the No campaigners to spread their criticisms of the constitution and the political elite. “The No has won the internet battle,” Mr Reynié says. “They have created a counter-culture, a parallel system to the official media. It is an insurrection against the professional journalists.” Hur kunde Nej-sidan vinna i den svenska EMU-omröstningen? För information via internet, vänd Dig med förtroende till Se även: "People are waking up and realizing that the French are probably going to vote no ... If the French and the Dutch reject the EU Constitution on Sunday and Wednesday, they should re-run the referendums, the current president of the EU, Jean-Claude Juncker, has said. "If at the end of the ratification process, we do not manage to solve the problems, the countries that would have said No, would have to ask themselves the question again", Mr Juncker said in an interview with Belgian daily Le Soir. Why has an apparently persistent opposition to the European constitution emerged in France, a country so often at the forefront of European construction? The theory of a punishment vote is flawed, given that the main opposition, the Socialist party, backs the constitution. It may be that the No vote is a wholesale rejection of the political class that has pushed forward the European project and is now losing its credibility. But it is more than a simple change of mood towards politics: it has to do with the entire concept of Europe. Medan allas blickar varit riktade mot Frankrike har Nederländerna, som röstar tre dagar senare, i skymundan seglat upp som den verkliga rysaren.
Top If the No vote wins in France The No camp counters feverishly that the constitution is really about a conspiratorial supra-national organisation rewriting the past to entrench its power. Not so different to the Da Vinci code. Few books have proved as popular as The Da Vinci Code by Dan Brown. But there are some surprise contenders in Paris, where much of its action takes place: five of the top 10 best-selling non-fiction books are about Europe's constitutional treaty. The Yes campaigners fear that if they acknowledge Plan B's existence they will only encourage voters to ask what's in it. The No camp claims that whatever it contains must be better than Plan A. According to the latest opinion poll published on Sunday, the No camp commands 52 per cent support in France. The No camp may have received a further boost yesterday after the election setback of Gerhard Schröder. Dutch opinion polls show resistance to the treaty hardening. On Friday a poll by TNS NIPO, for RTL television news, had the No campaign with 54 per cent and Yes at 27 per cent. The same day a poll by Interview NSS for Nova television gave No 63 per cent and Yes 37 per cent. Till vardags brukar Frankrike vara enkelt att förstå sig på. Presidenten bestämmer, parlamentet godkänner och regeringen verkställer. Oavsett den fråga som ställs i folkomröstningen lyder det spontana svaret inte "ja" eller "nej" utan "skit" (merde!). Och det riktar sig i dag i första hand mot den franske presidenten, Jacques Chirac. I september 1992 befann sig Francois Mitterrand i samma dramatiska beråd som Chirac i dag. Då gällde folkomröstningen formellt sett Maastricht-fördraget men i realiteten även Mitterrands ställning. På frågan om han tänkte avgå vid en nej-seger svarade Mitterrand att det argumentet att rösta nej tänkte han inte bjuda på. Då som nu eskalerade överdrifterna. Nej-sidans profiler jämförde Bryssel med Moskva och påstod att en gemensam valuta skulle leda till ett gemensamt språk i Europa - engelska. Franska språket skulle vara utrotningshotat. Mitterrand var inte sämre. Han förklarade i sin slutplädering i tv att ett ja till Maastricht skulle skydda Frankrike mot aids, terrorism och japanska bilar. RE: Visst är det konstigt att det bara är Ja-sägarna som förstår och besvarar folkomröstningsfrågan utan ovidkommande hänsyn.... De tre ledarna betonade också att det inte finns någon "Plan B" om fransmännen säger nej. - Europatanken föddes här i Frankrike. Det är Frankrikes ansvar att inte svika oss andra européer vad gäller konstitutionen. - Vi behöver ett ja för att skapa ett starkt och solidariskt Europa, sade Kwasniewski och konstaterade att ett franskt nej till konstitutionen skulle bli mycket svårt att förklara för de polska väljarna. De tre ledarna betonade också att det inte finns någon "Plan B" om fransmännen säger nej. Nu pågår till och med en debatt om debatten. Det började med ett upprop från ett stort antal tv-journalister, som menade att medierna tagit ställning för ja-sidan och helt oförblommerat för kampanj för ett ja till EU-konstitutionen. Mätningar har också visat att ja-sidan fått betydligt större utrymme i tv än nej-sidan. Uppropet har på två veckor samlat omkring 14.000 underskrifter. Kallsvetten börjar på nytt lacka i EU-huvudstädernas regeringskanslier En anledning till att nejkampanjen åter vinner terräng tycks vara att allt fler väljare övertygas om att en nejröst inte får negativa konsekvenser utan tvärtom kan leda till en ny förhandling med ett bättre utfall. EU-kommissionens respekterade förre ordförande Jacques Delors sade att "sanningen bjuder oss att säga att det kan finnas en plan B" vid ett franskt nej, även om det skulle skapa stora problem. Free elections sure can be a drag. Three opinion polls yesterday put the nons in the driver's seat less than two weeks before France's referendum on the EU Constitution. After the ouis retook the poll lead earlier in May, the latest shift in momentum will turn the pro-constitution French and European establishment back into Cassandras, proclaiming that a rejection would mean the end of the EU as we know it.
The best-seller list alone should make any Europhile weep with joy. Seven of the top 20 nonfiction titles are on the constitution. The 475-page treaty itself, in four parts, 36 protocols and two annexes, was the top seller in the L'Express-RTL ranking for five consecutive weeks. Commuters on the Paris subway can be spotted reading this ungainly document. Two of the four nonpartisan guides to the treaty are among the top five best sellers, ahead of Bob Dylan's autobiography. Further down are two anticonstitution tomes from Attac, the antiglobalization group. As a category, only Dan Brown of "Da Vinci Code" fame seems to outsell Euro-fare these days. Thanks to the referendum, this EU member state is belatedly digesting "Europe." Too many other EU politicians lacked the courage of President Jacques Chirac (no typo here) and opted for a rubber stamp in their parliaments. What a lost opportunity to narrow the EU's democracy deficit, especially since the constitution is sold as a landmark event in EU history. Of course, Mr. Chirac, the opposition Socialists and all the mainstream media are aghast that the French public won't, like Pavlov's dog, vote "yes" on command. Free elections sure can be a drag. If the French do indeed shoot down the constitution even some leading /US/ administration officials are likely to cheer.
It would seriously undermine prospects for EU enlargement to include key American friends such as Turkey and Ukraine. The writer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, is author of Allies at War: America, Europe and the Crisis Over Iraq (McGraw Hill) Notwithstanding some neoconservative fantasies in the US, in no way would the constitution undermine the Nato alliance or oblige US allies such as Britain and Poland to follow France and Germany on issues like Iraq. If the French say No, it is an illusion to think they will simply be asked to vote again later, as the Danes and Irish did after voters rejected previous EU treaties. The result of a French No would be the sort of disunity and political paralysis that makes the current EU such an awkward partner for other countries to deal with. With French politics thrown into disarray and Mr Chirac discredited, big initiatives would be put on hold until the next French presidential election in 2007. The No campaign has regained the lead, as voters ignore warnings about the damage that would be caused by rejection of Europe's constitutional treaty. The - possibly fatal - conceit was to dress up necessary reforms of EU institutions in the guise of a constitution, Den franska folkomröstningdebatten förs numera på nätet, läser jag i franska tidningar. Särskilt nejsidan, som kanske med rätta anser sig styvmoderligt behandlad av etablerade medier, för fram sitt budskap i cyberrymde Den politiska veckotidningen Le Nouvel Observateur, som är för de förslag till ny grundlag för EU som de franska väljarna ska rösta om 29 maj, klagar i en ledarartikel över att nejkampanjen inte får tillräckligt utrymme för sina argument i radio, tv och stora tidningar.
Jasidan har så småningom upptäckt att det kanske inte räcker med välmodulerade tv-framträdanden på bästa sändningstid för att övertyga de yngre delarna av en misstrogen väljarkår, som på nätet vant sig vid skarpa argument med högre känslotryck. http://referendum.blog.lemonde.fr/referendum/ En opinionsundersökning som publicerades i Paris Matchs nätupplaga visar en exakt jämvikt. 50-50, mellan lägren. Mätningen gjordes av opinionsinstitutet Ifop på tisdagen och onsdagen. På onsdagen höll president Jacques Chirac ett tv-sänt tal till fransmännen om vikten av konstitutionen. - Säger vi nej blir vi inte bara kvar i det förflutna, vi försvagar också Frankrike märkbart. Den här konstitutionen vänder ryggen åt dem som försvarar tesen om Europa som endast en inre marknad. Den förenar kravet på en stor marknad och kravet på en social harmonisering, sade Chirac i talet och försäkrade dessutom att konstitutionen är "huvudsakligen franskinspirerad". Dutch political leaders have scrambled into action on behalf of the Yes campaign for the European constitution, In another weekend poll for Dutch television, Maurice de Hond found the No vote leading the Yes camp 52 per cent to 48 per cent. It predicted a 32 per cent turnout. However, a poll by Interview-NSS, also for Dutch television, found Yes with 64 per cent to No's 36 per cent. The government's own survey has Yes ahead, but with its lead slipping. Of those certain or likely to vote, the Yes vote fell from 44 per cent in March to 39 per cent in April, while No climbed from 23 per cent to 26 per cent. One third are undecide Bland de grupper som tidigare varit postiva till EU-samarbetet, vilket ofta många unga människor varit, Jämför med Pernilla Ström Det är fasligt vad det koketteras inom vissa näringslivskretsar om EMU nu för tiden. The French No to the treaty signalled by the opinion polls would upend everything. As far as I can tell, no one in Paris believes that Jacques Chirac would be willing to present it to the electorate again before the next presidential election in two years' time. How then could other governments proceed to ratify a treaty that the French president had declared to be dead? This is not a British problem. Forget Mr Blair here, and ask if Poland, the Czech Republic, Ireland and Denmark could secure the backing of their voters for the treaty. It was the British prime minister's surprise decision last year to call a referendum that forced the French president to do likewise. This, according to the French version of events, after Mr Blair had privately pleaded with Mr Chirac over many months to rejects calls in France for a plebiscite. To make matters worse, the prime minister did not even bother to tell the president when he changed his mind and announced the British vote. Little wonder Anglo-French relations have since been less than cordiale. Top The latest poll suggests that more than 60% of French adults would vote against Three weeks ago, the political leadership of the European Union had no Plan B if the French vote No in their referendum on the EU constitutional treaty on May 29. This is no longer the case. Knut Ståhlbergs mästerliga biografi över Charles de Gaulle Carl Bildt: Financial Times editorial: DN, Ingrid Hedström - Den här grundlagen är början på ett konstitutionellt Europa med värden att försvara och politiska strukturer. Jag tycker att vi med den tar steget bort från ett enbart marknadsinriktat Europa. Därför försvarar jag den.
Den som röstar nej till konstitutionen för att ge nyliberalismen en snyting skjuter sig själv i foten, anser Cohn-Bendit, eftersom en stor del av de nya inslagen i förslaget "handlar om att komma förbi den renodlat marknadsinriktade definitionen av Europa". - Och jag säger att om vi vill ha ett Europa som kan ta ansvar i världen, också gentemot amerikanerna och deras unilaterala sätt att handskas med världen, då måste vi stärka Europa politiskt och det gör konstitutionen. - Vi har en mycket djup kris mellan allt fler människor och de styrande. Det finns ett avståndstagande från eliten, den politiska eliten, kultur-eliten och även medieeliten, inklusive mig själv. Vi kan inte knyta an till en massa människor därför att de inte längre har förtroende för oss.- Vi har en mycket djup kris mellan allt fler människor och de styrande. Det finns ett avståndstagande från eliten, den politiska eliten, kultur-eliten och även medieeliten, inklusive mig själv. Vi kan inte knyta an till en massa människor därför att de inte längre har förtroende för oss. DN, Ingrid Hedström - Globaliseringen, som oroar det franska folket, och som drivs av en ultraliberal strömning, gynnar de starkaste. USA, EU och anti-amerikanismen Anatole Kaletsky: What, then, is the real issue before the voters of France? A few days ago I heard this question beautifully answered for a British audience by Charles Gave, a prominent French economist who also happens to be my business partner: “Why will the French vote “no”? Because this referendum gives them the chance of a lifetime to vote simultaneously against the two politicians they have hated most for the past 30 years: Chirac and Giscard. To understand what the average Frenchman thinks of these two defunct septuagenarians claiming to speak for the nation, imagine how people in Britain would feel if they turned on the TV news and found Harold Wilson still arguing with Ted Heath.” The alternatives offered to the people of France are not between the idealistic European multiculturalism of the 21st century and the xenophobic nationalism of the 19th. Rather they face a choice between two approaches: on one hand the liberal ideology of free markets and small governments that seems to be sweeping the world after its relaunch in Britain and America in the 1980s. The alternative is the 1970s belief that a centralised, protectionist and bureaucratically managed state could gradually be extended to the whole of Europe, preserving and enhancing the traditions of Gaullism in its glory days, when Chirac and Giscard were rising to power. Why would the failure of the EU constitution advance liberalisation? First because it would be a wake-up call for the politicians and officials who have so mismanaged the European economy since the mid-1990s that France, Germany and Italy, which used to be among the world’s most prosperous and technologically advanced countries, have not just fallen behind America, Japan and Britain but now see their jobs and leading industries threatened with extinction by South Korea, Taiwan and even China. A “no” vote would be such a shock to Europe’s governing elites that the European Central Bank may well recognise that the only alternative to lower interest rates and a weaker euro will be the complete collapse of the single-currency project. Journalist associations from three large rival TV channels (France 2, France 3 and M6) have denounced, amongst other things, the lack of political analysts on the programme. Three topics will be discussed: the referendum on the EU Constitution, the perspectives for France in Europe, and Europe's place in the world. The programme, called "Referendum: live from the Elysee", is to be aired in prime time (20h50) and hosted by TF1's most widely-known journalist, Patrick Poivre d'Arvor. The young people present on the set will be between 18 to 25 years old. Financial Times: One senior EU official said: “We may want to issue a political statement quickly to try to limit the damage. Then we would try to pick up the pieces at the EU summit on June 16-17.”
Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin: If France approves the EU constitution, French Yes campaigners will have provided British Eurosceptics with plenty of ammunition for the UK's poll next year. Barbro Hedvall, DNs ledarsida Expressen ledare: It is almost impossible to overstate the importance of the French referendum on the European constitution for the future of the European Union. Without the prospect of eventual political union on the basis of some constitutional treaty, a single currency was always difficult to justify, and it might turn out to be even more difficult to sustain. I never thought it was possible to defend the euro purely on economic grounds. At best, the euro might have proved economically neutral for most, and beneficial for some. In reality, the eurozone probably falls somewhat short of this ideal scenario. But what if eventual political union suddenly seemed less likely than political fragmentation? Without the goal of some form of political union, could we still expect Germany or the Netherlands, for example, to be committed forever to a currency area whose monetary policies might not suit the economic conditions of their particular economies? Without the politics, the euro is not nearly as attractive. This is in spite of the fact that this is a poor constitution from an economic point of view. Utan Europas förenta stater kommer EMU att spränga EU Euron spricker när dollarn faller Politiker i Nederländerna ser med oro på att nej-sidan leder i valkampanjen inför folkomröstningen om EU-konstitutionen i Frankrike. I slutet av maj ska Frankrike folkomrösta om EU:s nya författning och EU:s ledare väntar med oro på resultatet. Flera opinionsundersökningar har visat att nej-sidan leder med en knapp majoritet och det kastar också en skugga över folkomröstningen om författningen i Holland i början av juni. Den holländska regeringen startade en ny kampanj för EU:s nya författning på tisdagen för att försöka förhindra att den negativa stämningen bland de franska väljarna sprider sig till Nederländerna. I helsidesannonser i de holländska morgontidningarna uppmanades väljarna att delta i folkomröstningen den 1 juni och till dess lära sig mer om författningen genom att läsa gratistidningen om konstitutionen som ska publiceras i tabloidformat nästa vecka. Men det kanske inte alls blir någon holländsk folkomröstning. Om fransmännen röstar nej den 29 maj så överväger den holländska regeringen och ja-kampanjen att ställa in alltihop och hålla vallokalerna stängda. Ytterligare ett nej till EU:s författning i Holland, tre dagar efter ett fransk avvisande skulle vara det närmaste man kan komma en katastrof för EU. Top The proposal for a new European Union services directive, issued when Frits Bolkestein was single market commissioner, is under attack from all sides. A narrow majority of voters is inclined to reject Mr Giscard's beloved constitution threatening to bring the European project juddering to a halt. Mr Giscard said it would be impossible to renegotiate such a document, especially as it had already been ratified by several countries. "We would have a crisis," he concluded. The possibility of just such a crisis crystallising in France has significantly increased in recent weeks, according to a batch of opinion polls. These have all shown that a narrow majority of voters is inclined to reject Mr Giscard's beloved constitution in a national referendum on May 29, threatening to bring the European project juddering to a halt. When President Jacques Chirac announced on July 14 last year that he was to hold a referendum to approve the constitution, pro-European sentiment was strong. An electoral triumph would reinforce Mr Chirac's political authority, giving him the perfect platform to launch a bid for a third presidential term in 2007 if he so desired. But events have since conspired against him. The opinion polls show that the French electorate has grown increasingly unhappy with his government, insecure about the country's economic future and worried about the way the EU has been developing. The second great difficulty bedevilling the Yes campaign is that their opponents are proving an elusive and effective enemy, refusing to be drawn into a battle on the government's chosen ground. On the left, Laurent Fabius, the former prime minister and deputy leader of the Socialist party, has been the most articulate critic of the constitution. Some elements of the Gaullist right are also campaigning against the constitution, arguing against both Turkey's entry and any further loss of sovereignty to Brussels. Charles Pasqua, the Gaullist senator and former interior minister who opposed the Maastricht treaty of 1992 that paved the way for the euro, last weekend pitched in for the No campaign. "Federal, ultra-liberal, Atlanticist - such is the Europe in which we have been living since Maastricht and such is the Europe that is being celebrated in this constitution," he said, accusing Mr Chirac's UMP of abandoning its Gaullist heritage. The Yes camp is also teeming with political sub-plots. Mr Sarkozy's voters have been whispering to the press that a No vote would kill off any chances of Mr Chirac's running for a third term, leaving the field free for their man to emerge as the natural leader of the right. Le Canard Enchainé, the investigative newspaper, has even reported that the Elysée Palace had grown so suspicious of Mr Sarkozy that it ordered his telephones to be bugged. France’s Yes campaigners on Europe like to draw comfort from their victory in the referendum in 1992, when they persuaded voters to adopt the euro. But it would be rash to draw too much reassurance: the result in 1992 was close and both the context and the content of the two campaigns are very different. Sylvie Goulard, a professor at Sciences Po, Paris’s political sciences school, argues there are three main differences between the situation in 1992 and 2005 - all to the detriment of the current Yes campaign. First, the opposition to the euro was conducted mainly on a rarefied level, with opponents of the single currency focusing on economics. I believe the odds still favour ratification. But since the last five opinion polls before the weekend put the No vote ahead, it is perfectly legitimate to ask what would happen if the French voted this way. Compared with a French Non, the consequences of a British No are almost trivial. In a much noted pamphlet, Charles Grantfrom the Centre for European Reform in London set out in great detail how a British No would trigger the formation of a coreEurope based around France and Germany.* This would leave the UK politically isolated. An EU without the UK is imaginable. An EU without France is not. The French No campaign opposes the EU constitution for precisely the opposite reason to that of Britain's eurosceptics. The French are fervent pro-Europeans, who believe that the EU is becoming too "Anglo-Saxon". If a French No were simply regarded as a vote of no-confidence in the EU in general, and in President Jacques Chirac in particular, the consequences would be even worse. There would be a political crisis in French domestic politics. The crisis would quickly engulf the whole EU. An immediate consequence of a No vote in any of these scenarios would be the indefinite postponement of enlargement talks with Turkey and Croatia. One of the rationales for the constitution was to prepare the EU for enlargement by reducing the threshold for a qualified majority. Turkey could then look forward to another 40 years of waiting in the EU's antechamber. This leaves us with two rather unpalatable options: a coreEurope in which the EU would remain little more than the shell of a single market; or an empty shell without a core. It is no wonder that some people find a French No vote "too awful to contemplate". An Ifop poll published Sunday 3/4 said 55 per cent would vote No. Recent opinion polls have highlighted an increasing possibility of French voters overturning the European constitution in a referendum on May 29, once an unthinkable prospect. An Ifop poll for the Journal du Dimanche newspaper published on Sunday said 55 per cent would vote No. “Polls for most elections are not very reliable. But for a very simple question, Yes or No, they are very reliable,” he said. “If the French vote were tomorrow it would be almost surely No.” Debatten inför den franska folkomröstningen börjar
få nästan spöklikt många likheter med debatten inför den
svenska EMU-omröstningen. Precis som i Sverige ökar nejsidan långsamt och obevekligt sin andel av valmanskåren. Och precis som i Sverige finns den kontroversilla Bilden - fotot som får vänstersinnade jaförespråkare att rysa av obehag, men som ger meningar nickningar från dem som i jakampanjen ser en eliternas sammansvärning mot folket. I Sverige var det bilden av Ericsson-chefen Carl-Henrik Svanberg kindpussande socialdemokratiska utrikesministern och kronprinsessan Anna Lindh. I Frankrike är det bilden av s-ledaren Francois Hollande sida vid sida med högerns hopp, UMP-ledaren och tidigare ministern Nicolas Sarkozy, på omslaget till Paris Match. De båda partiledarna ser onekligen ut som tvillingar på bilden. De bär likadana mörkblå kostymer, likadana ljusblå skjortor och slipsar i exakt samma mellanblå nyans. Likada leenden dessutom. För frustrerade franska väljare blir det lätt ett bevis för att Hollande och Sarkozy har samma svar, eller brist på svar, på deras oroliga frågor om arbetslöshet, företagsutflyttningar och sociala problem. Låt oss tänka det otänkbara. När EU:s politiker lyfter huvudet ur sanden flyr de in i formaljuridiken. Vi kan fortsätta att leva med det gällande Nicefördraget. Och det går ju ett litet tag till. Fram till 2007 då Bulgarien och Rumänien blir EU-medlemmar. Därefter blir Nicefördraget obrukbart. Det var Jacques Chirac som förhandlade för Frankrike, som undertecknade det konstitutionella fördraget, som den 14 juli i fjol utlovade en folkomröstning, som formulerade frågeställningen och som bestämde valdagen. Kort sagt, Chirac är ja-sidans främste företrädare. Vid en ja-seger är Chirac vinnaren, vid en nej-seger är han förloraren. Gloom about Europe's economic outlook intensified markedly on Thursday after a plunge in economic confidence across the continent and further rises in French and German unemployment. In forecasts in line with those to be published by the Commission next week, Euroframe expected eurozone growth of just 1.5 per cent this year, after 1.8 per cent in 2004. The French and German governments, meanwhile, face increasing political pressures caused by high unemployment. Patrick Devedjian, French industry minister, described as “very bad” figures showing the country's jobless rate at a five-year high of 10.1 per cent in February. German unemployment, nevertheless, rose in March by a seasonally adjusted 92,000 to almost 5m, or 12 per cent of the workforce I undersökningen som publicerades igår i Le Figaro uppger 54 procent att de säkert röstar nej
i omröstningen den 29 maj. Sedan länge har Chirac hårda motståndare som kommer från hans egen politiska familj. Där finns några mycket aktiva euro-dissidenter som framför allt vill bekämpa Bryssel och försvara Frankrikes suveränitet. Till dessa ”suveränister” hör gamla framträdande ministrar som Charles Pasqua och Philippe Seguin. Nicolas Sarkozy, ledaren för presidentens eget parti (UMP), liksom François Bayrou, ledaren för det lilla center-högerpartiet UDF, tillhör dem som motsätter sig Turkiets EU-ambitioner, medan Chirac säger ja till Turkiet. Den verkliga mardrömmen för Chirac vore att den allt intensivare kampanjen utvecklas till en förtroendeomröstning om presidenten och hans impopulära regering. För tre år sedan röstade vänstern för Jacques Chirac i presidentvalet eftersom alternativet var Jean-Marie Le Pen. Chirac behöver åter detta stöd men i dag talar många inom vänstern om behovet av en ”hälsosam kris” i EU och i Frankrike. Something structural is going on as well: the rise of a new Euroscepticism. Unemployment is over 10%. Growth is still sluggish. Rents are rising. Hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets. Yet the government lacks any serious plan to revive the economy or increase jobs. Moreover, a whiff of sleaze hangs in the air, after the resignation of Hervé Gaymard as finance minister over a housing scandal, not to mention the opening this week of a corruption trial that fingers colleagues of Mr Chirac when he was mayor of Paris. The inclusion of Turkey is seen as yet another symbol of the transformation of the EU into a loose confederation, lacking political ambition, and far removed from the founding French idea. French Euroscepticism is thus the polar opposite of the British variety: it is not anti-Europe but rather anti-liberal Europe. Ett ja - och president Chirac kommer att fortsätta att spela i första divisionen tillsammans med den tyske förbundskanslern. När Frankrike haft sin folkomröstning om konstitutionen kan Barroso och hans medarbetare återkomma med ett omarbetat förslag som fortfarande ställer till stora problem för löntagare och konsumenter. Mr Chirac said he had chosen to have a referendum on the Constitution out of respect for French citizens and traditions. To ratify a treaty in France, the President can choose between a referendum and a vote by the Parliament. However, the country has a strong tradition of holding referendums. "A referendum as such is a democratic approach", Mr Chirac said. "I am convinced that this Treaty (the Constitution) is a step forward in terms of economic, social and foreign policy", he said adding that France has "nothing to lose and everything to win" with the document. He will address the French on the referendum "when the time comes". The French president also said he was happy with the agreement reached on the controversial services directive. Frankrike ansåg sig ha stoppat det kritiserade förslaget om handel med tjänster. EU-kommissionen menade sig ha fått klartecken för samma förslag. - Att säga att vi gjort något dramatiskt är helt enkelt inte sant! Det vi gjort är att låta EU:s lagstiftningsarbete fortsätta, med förbehållet att det inte får leda till social dumpning, sade Juncker efter mötet. - Ingen krävde att tjänstedirektivet skulle dras tillbaka. Tvärtom ansåg alla att vi behöver öppna marknaden för fri handel med tjänster, underströk kommissionens ordförande, José Manuel Barroso. - Dra tillbaka och dra tillbaka - vad betyder det? svarade den franske presidenten Jacques Chirac undvikande, när han pressades på besked om han verkligen stoppat förslaget. - De allra flesta länder har någon typ av bekymmer med tjänstedirektivet, samtidigt som alla inser att vi behöver ett sådant, annars hamnar de här frågorna i domstol, säger Sveriges statsminister Göran Persson. The concessions they won yesterday on services were more apparent than real. For the summiteers urged that the draft plan do what it already largely does: exempt public services, and avoid creating "social dumping" or a downward spiral in pay and standards. For the same reason, the summit did not - contrary to the impression given by Mr Chirac and Mr Schröder - order the Commission to rewrite its draft. Risken för bakslag i den franska folkomröstningen överskuggar allt mer arbetet i EU. Om så sker inträffar en omskakande politisk katastrof både för president Jacques Chirac och för EU-samarbetet i sin helhet. Den stora frågan på toppmötet, som avslutas i dag, handlar därför om - och i så fall hur - övriga EU på något sätt kan hjälpa Chirac att vinna omröstningen den 29 maj. nne i detta reformpaket ligger emellertid ett förslag till liberaliserad tjänstemarknad som väcker mycket starka känslor runt om i Europa. Jacques Chirac och Gerhard Schröder har i mycket aggressiva ordalag förkastat förslaget. Det antogs enhälligt för drygt ett år sedan av Romano Prodis kommission på initiativ av den holländske kommissionären Frits Bolkestein. Den nu hårt trängda nya Barroso-kommissionen har hamnat i dilemmat att den måste hitta en kompromiss som avdramatiserar förslaget utan att för den skull offra de strategiska ambitionerna att skapa en gemensam europeisk tjänstemarknad. The survey for Le Figaro showed that 52 percent of people who said they were certain to vote would vote no in the referendum This appeared to confirm a turnaround in French public opinion that was suggested by a poll on Friday, which also showed the no camp forging ahead. Opposition to the new EU charter has grown significantly in a very short space of time, the survey also indicated. Näringskommissionär Günter Verheugen säger i Financial Times att tjänstedirektivet tas som gisslan i debatten - och att kommissionen skall hjälpa Chirac. Risken är annars att det blir non i maj: Euroskepticismen är inte längre bara en brittisk paradgren. Den breder ut sig i unionens hjärtland. Kommissionens ordförande José Manuel Barroso hävdar att franska politiker underblåser eurofobin inför folkomröstningen om konstitutionen den 29 maj. Frankrikes president Jacques Chirac kallar EU:s tjänstedirektiv "oacceptabelt". Näringskommissionär Günter Verheugen säger i Financial Times att tjänstedirektivet tas som gisslan i debatten - och att kommissionen skall hjälpa Chirac. Risken är annars att det blir non i maj: enligt en opinionsmätning i Le Parisien igår tänker 51 procent rösta nej. Mr Chirac is these days one of the most left-wing of Europe's leaders. His recent proposal to create an “international solidarity levy” on international financial transactions or airline-ticket sales, so as to finance African development and the fight against AIDS The French president has no rivals as global spokesman on anti-Americanism, a doctrine that usually belongs to the left in Europe but in France has a long history on the Gaullist right as well. To this, he has added his own blend of anti-globalisation, globe-trotting with the likes of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former trade-union leader, and dispatching representatives to the World Social Forum. Moreover, with his Arabist foreign policy in the Middle East, and his defiant hostility to the war in Iraq, he seems to have a soft-left world outlook that would fit well on any university campus. On economic matters, this is certainly no market-liberalising, right-wing government. In May, Mr Chirac will celebrate ten years in office. It is hard to detect what mark his decade has left. Mr Chirac has contined to resist EU efforts to liberalise the energy market. He is now blocking the services directive, which he said this week was “unacceptable” and should be “picked apart”. He has even reactivated an interventionist industrial policy. His variety of continental conservatism belongs to a social Gaullist tradition, which—like Christian Democracy—often defines itself precisely against liberalism. Under this doctrine, the language of “social cohesion” and “solidarity” belongs to the right as much as to the left. In other words, Mr Chirac has not been liberalising simply because, as one adviser says, “he does not believe in untempered liberalism”. Visit Paris and the mood of apprehension among the French political classes is unmistakeable. In a little over two months, France will vote on whether to ratify the European Union's constitutional treaty. Few seem certain the answer will be Yes. Mr Chirac has set May 29 as the date for the treaty referendum. The opinion poll headlines - showing 60 per cent in favour - suggest he should win it comfortably. The politicians are less sure. Opinion has been moving towards the No camp. When pollsters question only those who profess themselves certain to vote, the gap narrows sharply to only 53 per cent in favour. Behind the nervousness lurks fear of a deeper crisis of identity. France is no longer sure of its place in the world. Much has changed since Maastricht. Little of it is of comfort to France. As a founder member of the club, France has never questioned the rationale for Europe. Beyond the immediate aim of reconciliation with Germany, the European Union has been the essential locus for the advancement of France's national interest. There is also the ever-present danger that the voters will choose to answer a different question, treating the referendum as a chance to lodge a protest against the government. All this evokes ominous echoes of the Maastricht treaty, ratified by the slimmest of majorities in 1991. Then, as now, the Yes side started well ahead. Among the organised left - the trade unions and activists who last week put a million demonstrators on the streets to protest against the government's economic policies - opinion is said to be running 70 to 30 per cent for the No camp. Det franska politiska etablissemanget vill, trots riskerna och trots erfarenheterna av den ytterst knappa ja-segern om Maastrichtavtalet 1992, förankra EU:s traktat i folkomröstning. Jacques Chirac faces a testing vote on the EU constitution in the early summer
Since EU leaders agreed in December to begin membership negotiations with Turkey, the French political row over the possibility of ever admitting this big, poor and Muslim country has resumed. Mr Chirac has long been an advocate of admitting Turkey, mainly for strategic reasons. But even with Michel Barnier, his foreign minister, and Dominique de Villepin, his interior minister, in agreement, he is still in the minority. His prime minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, is against. So is Nicolas Sarkozy, the new head of his UMP party, along with most UMP members of parliament, and a majority of the French public, according to the polls. Mindful of this hostility, even Mr Chirac has begun to talk more cautiously about when Turkey might be ready. Mr Chirac is now trying to sterilise the referendum on the constitution by removing any traces of the Turkish question. He has already promised a separate referendum on Turkish entry—when it is imminent, in 10-15 years' time. This week, his cabinet approved a change to the constitution that will oblige France to hold a referendum on any future expansion of the EU. Med ett rungande "ja" gav de franska socialisterna, PS, sitt stöd till EU:s nya grundlag, vid sin interna omröstning på onsdagskvällen. Med mer än 55 procent av medlemmarna bakom sig ställer sig därmed Frankrikes största oppositionsparti på samma sida som president Jacques Chirac och regeringen i kampen för ett ja i folkomröstningen nästa år. - Tvärt emot EU-skeptikernas skräckpropaganda innebär den nya grundlagen verkliga demokratiska framsteg, framför allt på det sociala området, sade Martin Schulz, ledare för den socialdemokratiska gruppen i EU-parlamentet. Britter och svenskar har ett viktigt gemensamt Europaintresse, On Wednesday, the Socialist party, which forms the chief opposition to the government, will vote on whether the party should campaign for or against the constitutional treaty in the national referendum that Jacques Chirac, the president of France, has called for next year. The result could have momentous consequences for the Socialist party, for France, and for Europe. Charles de Gaulle, the former French president and one of the chief architects of postwar France, was clear about the role Europe should play in his country's designs. He argued that Europe should act as a lever for France, multiplying the nation's influence in the world and creating an alternative power centre to the US. For several decades, the economic and political incarnation of Europe largely fulfilled that function. The Franco-German alliance proved the driving force behind the creation of the institutions that form today's European Union. France's national influence, in economic, social and trade policy, has undoubtedly been magnified as a result. But France is, perhaps belatedly, waking up to the realisation that the Europe it helped create is changing fast and that Paris is losing its once dominant grip over the EU. Partly, this is the result of simple arithmetic. In a Union of 25 member states, France's influence is inevitably weaker. Partly, it is the result of Germany becoming more assertive in pursuing national interests following the country's unification. Laurent Fabius, the party's deputy leader and former prime minister, and other prominent Socialists have been campaigning vigorously against it. Mr Fabius argues that France's vision of Europe has been betrayed. Instead of deepening the ties between its member states and developing Europe's social dimension, the EU has developed à l'anglaise and become too liberal, diffuse and spineless. "A Yes is a renunciation, albeit involuntarily, of the good intentions and the grand idea of a European power. A No creates the possibility of a rebound," he argues in his campaign book, A Certain Idea of Europe. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, one of the French Socialist Party's most senior figures, has warned of the possible "breakdown of Europe" if his party's members reject the European Union's constitutional treaty in an internal vote next week. The No campaign in the Socialist Party has been spearheaded by Laurent Fabius, the former prime minister, who has argued that Europe is becoming too economically liberal. "If the European Union hopes to play its part, it should take responsibility for the whole of the zone from which its culture and civilisation originated: the north of Europe as well as the Mediterranean. I cannot see it lasting in setting up a sort of barrier in the Strait of Gibraltar and in the Bosphorus," he said. His comments came a day after Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president, called for the EU to limit links with Turkey to a "privileged partnership". Mr Chirac and Mr Sarkozy embody two quite different and competing ideas about the future of France. Mr Chirac is a neo-Gaullist conservative who believes that French power should be projected through a strong Europe, built on the Franco-German axis and forming a counterbalance to the United States. IN THE summer of 1975, at a party congress in Nice, an energetic and ambitious young French centre-right prime minister introduced to the packed auditorium an equally energetic and ambitious centre-right party youth member. The 20-year-old student had travelled on the overnight train, and had written his first political speech on a single sheet of paper. The prime minister warned him to speak for no more than five minutes. Defiant, intoxicated by the applause, he went on for 20. The prime minister was Jacques Chirac. The young hack was Nicolas Sarkozy. On November 28th, at a stage show outside Paris, Mr Sarkozy will be declared the overwhelming winner of an election to head the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), the ruling party and the descendant of the one Mr Chirac launched a year after the Nice congress. Mr Sarkozy succeeds Alain Juppé, Mr Chirac's preferred heir, who in January was found guilty—pending appeal—of political corruption. The man Mr Chirac most distrusts is about to get his hands on the party the president created. Fransk revolution mot EU-fördraget France should hold a referendum on whether to allow Turkey into the EU, according to French finance minister Nicolas Sarkozy. The German Christian Democrat Party appears to be suffering an internal split over the Turkish issue. The leader of Germany's centre-right opposition party, Angela Merkel, earlier this month wrote to other centre-right leaders in the EU in a bid to block Turkey's full membership of the EU, offering instead a "privileged partnership". Chairman of the German Parliament’s foreign affairs committee Volker Rühe has however criticised the party’s leader Angela Merkel of being out of step with the majority in Europe. France searches for its place in a wider Union A chief architect of so many of Europe's big innovations, from the single market to the euro, Paris these days is having trouble winning sympathy for its initiatives. Add to that recent discordant outbursts with European partners over issues ranging from Iraq to industrial policy, and France is looking increasingly isolated. . Nicolas Bavarez, who shook the intellectual establishment last year with his book "France in Free Fall," says the situation has worsened in the past 12 months. Is France really in terminal decline? Former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius is drifting towards a firm rejection of the Constitution However, Mr Fabius appears to have since hardened his position, drifting towards a clear "no". In a much quoted comment over the weekend, he said, "I find nothing in this text that would allow for a change of policy in the field of jobs and fight against the moving of jobs abroad ... my natural inclination ... is therefore to vote no". And the leading lights of the Socialist party appear to be aligning themselves behind the two men. Acccording to Le Nouvel Observateur, 25 leading Socialists have pronounced for a "yes", including Pervenche Bérès (leading French MEP and Chair of the European Parliament's Economics Committee) and former Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine. The "no" corner includes one MEP (André Laignel) and several members of the Socialist national bureau. Another leading Socialist, former Presidential candidate Lionel Jospin, has yet to pronounce either way. Some 40 percent of the Socialist Party's membership is estimated to be opposed to the Constitution. När folket får
bestämma Redan i dag står det klart att, förutom Frankrike, låter Danmark, Irland, Luxemburg, Portugal, Spanien och Storbritannien väljarna ta ställning. I Belgien, Nederländerna, Polen och Tjeckien talar mycket för en folkomröstning. Även om politikerna gör sitt bästa för att engagera väljarna och undviker allt vad von oben-attityd heter kan de inte komma ifrån själva sakfrågan: konstitutionen. Erfarenheterna av folkomröstningar visar att väljarnas känslospröt snabbt registrerar intellektuell ohederlighet och falsk retorik. När nu allt fler av Europas ledare lägger sina öden i folkets händer innebär det ett stort chanstagande. Vi har en lång resa framför oss men i dag framstår ett, kanske flera, nej som den troligaste utgången. Philippe de Villiers is a French rebel with a cause. He breaks
a general taboo among respectable politicians in France. He says boldly that
"the Europe of Brussels is an anti-democratic dictatorship". European Press Review: Beginning of the End for Jacques
Chirac The Libération in Paris agrees that French voters obviously want a political change. President Jacques Chirac needs to respond to that demand through his actions and in whom he chooses to help him govern. Whatever choices he makes, though, the paper thinks this could be the beginning of the end of the Chirac era. Jacques Delors: Asked if he puts the chances of the effective
collapse of the EU as high as 50%, he replies simply:
“Yes.” Mr Delors's anxiety also reflects a peculiarly French worry about enlarging the Union from its present membership of 15 countries to 25 in May, with more coming. The French elite has become used to dominating the Union, never more so than in the heyday of Mr Delors, and it is clearly anxious that enlargement could spell an end to this happy arrangement. The elite's anxieties have transmitted themselves to the general public; opinion polls show stronger hostility to EU enlargement in France than in any of the other 14 member countries. Given current birth rates, it is not
impossible that in 25 years France will have a Muslim majority. France is facing the problem that dare not speak its name. Though French law prohibits the census from any reference to ethnic background or religion, many demographers estimate that as much as 20-30 per cent of the population under 25 is now Muslim. The streets, the traditional haunt of younger people, now belong to Muslim youths. In France, the phrase "les jeunes" is a politically correct way of referring to young Muslims. Given current birth rates, it is not impossible that in 25 years France will have a Muslim majority. The consequences are dynamic: is it possible that secular France might become an Islamic state? The situation is not dissimilar elsewhere in the EU. Europeans may at some young point in the 21st century have to decide whether they wish to retain the diluted but traditional Judaeo-Christian culture of their minority or have it replaced by the Islamic culture of the majority. |